Post-processing and Verification of hydrological ensemble predictions
Last Updated on Tuesday, 06 December 2011 13:54
7-9 June 2011, UNESCO-IHE, Delft, the Netherlands
Documentation
| Workshop Program and list of partecipants |
|
Posters
| Title |
Poster |
| Comparison of two hydrological ensemble postprocessing methods |
Qingyun Duan |
1 |
| An evaluation of the performance of downscaling methods in driving hydrological models |
Hua Chen |
2 |
| Comparison of rainfall-runoff model post-processing approaches in the context of an operational ensemble forecasting chain |
Thibault Mathevet / Jeremy Chardon |
3 |
| Information-theoretical evaluation of probabilistic forecasts |
Steven Weijs |
4 |
| Valuing information from high resolution forecasts |
Kees Kok |
5 |
| Tuesday, June 7, 2011 |
| 12:00 |
Registration and Ice-breaker lunch |
| |
| Session 1 |
Presentations HEPEX |
Chair: Schalk Jan van Andel |
|
| 13:30 |
Opening |
Rectorate UNESCO-IHE represented by Stefan Uhlenbrook |
Intro |
| 13:45-14:15 |
Introduction: HEPEX, set-up of the current workshop and data sets; overview of the experimental design document |
John Schaake |
6 |
| 14:20-14:40 |
Innovative Tools for Water Quality/Quantity Management: New York City's Operations Support Tool |
Luke Wang |
7 |
| 14:40-15:00 |
An Ensemble Post-Processor for the New York City Operations Support Tool |
Jay Day |
8 |
| 15:00-15:30 |
Poster announcements/session - Coffeebreak |
|
|
| 15:30-15:50 |
Probabilistic Forecasts Within a Time Horizon and Exact Flooding Probability |
Gabriele Coccia / Ezio Todini |
9 |
| 15:50-16:10 |
Estimating the benefits of probability forecasting for flood warning |
Jan Verkade |
10 |
| 16:10-16:30 |
NWS Requirements for Operational Hydrologic Post-Processing |
Robert Hartman |
11 |
| 16:40-17:00 |
HEPEX data sets |
Qingyun Duan |
12 |
| 17:00-17:30 |
Discussion / Comments on the experimental set-up |
|
|
| Wednesday, June 8 2011 |
| Session 2 |
Presentations Verification |
Chair: Albrecht Weerts |
|
| 9:00-9:20 |
Using Forecast Verification to Evaluate Forecast System Enhancements for Long-Range Hydrologic Ensemble Predictions |
Allen Bradley |
13 |
| 9:20-9:40 |
Impact of sample size on forecast verification scores and post processing parameters of hydrological ensemble predictions |
Ioanna Zalachori/Maria-Helena Ramos |
14 |
| 9:40-10:00 |
Some Perspectives on the Relationship Between Dependent and Independent Verification Statistics Suggested by an Analysis of Ensemble Simulation Results for the HEPEX Hydrological Ensemble Post-processing and Verification Workshop |
John Schaake |
15 |
| 10:00-10:30 |
Poster Session-Coffee-break |
Coffee-break |
|
| 10:30-10:50 |
Near real time data assimilation for hydrological forecasting and uncertainties |
Nathalie Voisin |
16 |
| 10:50-11:10 |
Short-term HEPS - experimental design |
Bruce Davison |
17 |
| 11:10-11:30 |
Short-term hybrid forecasts blending NWP rainfall forecasts and radar nowcasts for probabilistic flow predictions |
Sara Liguori |
18 |
| 11:30-11:40 |
Short break |
|
|
| 11:40-12:00 |
Comparison of calibration techniques for a limited-area ensemble precipitation forecast using re-forecasts |
Tomasso Diomede |
19 |
| 12:00-12:20 |
Tree generation for adaptive control |
Luciano Raso |
20 |
| 12:20-12:40 |
Machine learning in building models of models' uncertainty |
Dimitri Solomatine |
21 |
| Lunch |
| Session 3 |
Workshop Post-processing hydrological simulations |
Chair: Konrad Bogner |
|
| 13:40-14:00 |
Ensemble dressing |
Tom Pagano |
22 |
| 14:00-14:20 |
Evaluation of a Gaussian regression based streamflow postprocessor using simulated streamflows for test basins in the southeast U.S. |
Satish Regonda |
23 |
| 14:20-14:40 |
Post-processing and combining hydrological ensemble forecast systems |
Konrad Bogner |
24 |
| 14:40-15:00 |
Poster Session-Coffee-break |
Coffee-break |
|
| 15:00-15:30 |
Introduction to the working groups |
John Schaake |
|
| 15:30-17:00 |
Parallel working groups A: Ensemble simulation of hydrologic model predictive uncertainty |
|
|
| 15:30-17:00 |
Parallel working groups B: Approaches to measure performance of ensemble simulations of hydrologic model predictive uncertainty |
|
|
| 17:00-17:30 |
Plenary summary and discussion of Session 3 working group activities |
Session 3 working group leaders |
|
Dinner
| Thursday, June 9 2011 |
| Session 4 |
Workshop Post-processing hydrologic ensemble predictions |
Chair: Maria-Helena Ramos |
|
| 8:40-9:00 |
Rijnland data for HEPEX post-processing |
Schalk Jan van Andel |
25 |
| 9:00-9:20 |
Evaluation of a non-parametric postprocessor for hydrologic uncertainty estimation and bias-correction, with application to a multi-model ensemble of simulated streamflows from test basins in the southeast U.S. |
James Brown |
26 |
| 9:20-9:40 |
Comparison of point forecast accuracy of model averaging methods in hydrologic applications, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment |
Cees Diks / Jasper Vrugt |
27 |
| 9:40-10:00 |
Estimating predictive hydrological uncertainty using Quantile Regression |
Jan Verkade |
28 |
| 10:00-10:30 |
Poster Session-Coffee-break |
Coffee-break |
|
| 10:30-11:00 |
Introduction to the working groups |
Albrecht Weerts |
|
| 11:00-12:30 |
Parallel working groups A: Approaches to post-process hydrologic ensemble forecasts |
|
|
| 11:00-12:30 |
Parallel working groups B: Approaches to measure performance of procedures to post-process hydrologic ensemble forecasts |
|
|
| Lunch |
| Session 5 |
Results and agreements on further actions |
Chair: John Schaake |
|
| 13:40-14:00 |
Presentations / discussion session 4 working groups |
Session 4 working group leaders |
|
| 14:00-15:00 |
Plenary discussion of all working group activities Assessment of intercomparison activities to date |
|
|
| 15:00-15:30 |
Coffee-break |
|
|
| 15:30-~ |
Towards future testbed activities and inter-comparison studies Special Issue in Hydrological Processes Publications in Journal of Hydrometeorology |
|
|
| |
Closure |
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Overview of the 